The link below leads to a summary of the latest Presidential Polls. My assumption has been if it’s close going into the election, people will tend to give the benefit of the doubt to the incumbent. I personally would be surprised to see Obama lose, but it’s amazing how close this race seems to be in the polls.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/27/2012-polls-lead_n_2031046.html